The 2023-24 NHL season kicks off Oct. 10. The Athletic has their complete NHL season predictions, including a wacky look at the potential bottom feeder teams.
Can anyone challenge Connor McDavid for the Hart Trophy? Or Connor Bedard for the Calder Trophy? Who are the early favorites in what could be a tight Vezina Trophy race? And which team will win the Connor Hellebuyck sweepstakes?
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The 2023-24 NHL season is upon us, and that means it’s time for The Athletic to ask its staff for their predictions. We’ll have team picks — including the Stanley Cup winner and the full playoff field — on Tuesday. For now, we start with individual awards, plus the Hellebuyck question that could be hanging over the league until the Jets’ star goalie is dealt.
To pick apart the results of our polling, provide context and give us a healthy critique, we’ve brought in senior national writer Sean Gentille, national writer Hailey Salvian, analytics guru Shayna Goldman and NHL betting expert Jesse Granger.
Read more: NHL coaching hot seat: Why should (or shouldn’t) these 9 coaches be worried?
Hart Trophy
Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA)
Gentille: I went McDavid, but I like Jack Hughes’ potential to swoop in if voter fatigue sets in.
Goldman: The fact that Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are both on here is probably what stops either one from winning it anytime soon. The Avalanche stars are worthy, but how do you pick between them?
Granger: My prediction: This will be the lowest percentage of this vote McDavid gets all season.
Rocket Richard Trophy
Given to the leading goal scorer at the end of the regular season.
Gentille: Greetings from the Mikko Rantanen voter! I had to go off the board somewhere.
Goldman: I’m boring and picked Auston Matthews, but David Pastrnak could be the way to go here — especially if he takes it upon himself to make up for some gaps in the Bruins’ lineup.
Granger: Last season, the narrative around McDavid was that he heard whispers that Matthews could be catching him and scored 64 goals to prove a point. This year, I think the opposite is true. Matthews is out to prove he’s the best goal-scorer in the league, and he is.
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Norris Trophy
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position. Voted on by the PHWA.
Gentille: Miro Heiskanen seems to be climbing the ladder with voters, but … come on. If Makar is healthy, he’s going to win until folks get sick of him.
Granger: In 2022-23, Makar put up 66 points and contended for the Norris while missing more than a quarter of the season. If he’s remotely healthy, it feels inevitable he wins another.
Salvian: Charlie McAvoy may be on track to be the best defender to never win a Norris.
Goldman: Without Patrice Bergeron doing all the things defensively in Boston, it feels like this is a good year for McAvoy to get more notice. But Makar feels right. He was probably the best all-around defenseman last season and would have been voted as such had he not missed time.
Selke Trophy
Given to the forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game. Voted on by the PHWA.
Gentille: I get the draw of picking Nico Hischier here. The Selke is more reputation-based than the rest of the awards, and he finished second last season to Bergeron. There are some other big names on that list, though, with similar amounts of cred, including past winners in Anze Kopitar (2016 and 2018) and Aleksander Barkov (2021).
Granger: I’m surprised Mark Stone didn’t make this list. He’s received votes in 10 of the past 11 seasons and finished as the runner-up three different times and in the top three four times. Now, with Bergeron retired and Stone’s back issues seemingly behind him, he should be among the favorites.
Goldman: Hischier’s the trendy pick now, and last season’s offensive improvement matched that high-end defense to make him a strong candidate. If Joel Eriksson Ek can pick up the scoring, he’d probably get more appreciation in today’s voting environment, too. Surprised that Mikael Backlund only gets one pick. He’s another realistic one.
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Vezina Trophy
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. Voted on by the general managers of all 32 NHL clubs.
Gentille: I like how we’ve moved on, en masse, from the idea of a Linus Ullmark repeat. Feels like it’s Ilya Sorokin’s time.
Goldman: Sorokin versus Igor Shesterkin should be a fun battle of besties for years to come.
Granger: Sorokin could receive a lighter workload with one of the best backups in the NHL in Semyon Varlamov. The way Shesterkin will be leaned on by the Rangers, he has the potential to put up eye-popping numbers if he can hold up. For that potential, he’s my vote.
Jack Adams Award
Given to the coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success. Voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Association.
| Coach | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
21.2% | |
18.2% | |
12.1% | |
9.1% | |
6.1% | |
6.1% | |
3.0% | |
3.0% | |
3.0% | |
3.0% | |
3.0% | |
3.0% | |
3.0% | |
3.0% | |
3.0% |
Gentille: I voted for Rick Tocchet. The Jack Adams is an award for the most popular coach on the most surprising half-decent team, and Tocchet might check both boxes, especially if Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko bounces back.
Goldman: The Sabres’ Don Granato could be a really deserving pick, but I think Mike Sullivan will get some renewed appreciation if the Penguins crush it.
Granger: Bruce Cassidy turned a good defensive team in Vegas into a great defensive team and shut down the top offenses throughout the playoffs with two different unheralded goalies. If Vegas’ defensive system remains stout, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t, he should absolutely be getting more consideration here.
Calder Trophy
Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. Voted on by the PHWA.
Gentille: The question is how bad Bedard would have to be to lose this.
Salvian: This vote was done before Bedard’s shootout miss against the Wild and people started to yell about him being bad. (I’m joking, don’t yell at me.)
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Granger: I’ll stay on brand and talk about the goalie here, because I think he has the only real shot at upsetting Bedard. If Devon Levi is the man in Buffalo and leads the Sabres to the playoffs, it’s going to be really hard not to give him the award.
Hellebuyck sweepstakes
At the end of the season, Connor Hellebuyck will be on this team’s roster:
Gentille: Winnipeg staying put would be in character and truly hilarious. Get this man to an actual contender, please.
Salvian: We’ve been hearing about how Hellebuyck and top-line center Mark Scheifele had played their last games in Winnipeg for a while now, but still, there they are still on the Jets. And now I find it hard to imagine the Jets moving their No. 1 in-season. Especially if they are in the playoff mix.
Goldman: The Jets just don’t have the spice to move Hellebuyck mid-year. It feels like not doing it this offseason is going to crush them.
Granger: I also think the Jets will be just good enough to convince themselves hanging on to Hellebuyck isn’t the worst idea.
GO DEEPER
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(Top photo of Connor McDavid and Connor Hellebuyck: Ethan Miller / Getty Images and Andrew Bershaw / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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